The ambition to limit global warming as outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement necessitates an urgent and expansive approach to carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. A recent study spearheaded by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway underscores a sobering reality: without immediate and substantial advancements, CCS is unlikely to scale adequately to meet even the more lenient 2°C target, and the more stringent 1.5°C goal appears almost unattainable. As the climate clock ticks, it becomes essential to critically assess what this means for our efforts against climate change.
The Mechanism of CCS and Its Potential
CCS operates on a promising premise: capturing carbon dioxide emissions and storing them deep underground. This technology is particularly noteworthy in applications like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS), which can both result in negative emissions—effectively extracting carbon from the atmosphere and thereby counteracting fossil fuel consumption. While these technologies are theoretically capable of transforming emission profiles, their current implementation remains minimal. The need for significant innovations and deployments is evident, as highlighted by Jessica Jewell, an Associate Professor at Chalmers University of Technology.
The pivotal study published in *Nature Climate Change* reveals that CCS may only sequester a maximum of 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide throughout the 21st century—significantly below the 1,000 Gt benchmark set by many climate propositions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This disparity raises fundamental questions about whether the existing strategies for mitigating climate change can effectively utilize CCS to curtail emissions. As noted by Tsimafei Kazlou, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Bergen, understanding the timing for CCS scalability is critical; delayed adoption hinders our ability to maintain temperature increases within safe limits.
The researchers behind the study emphasize that expanding the number of CCS initiatives and improving their success rates are vital to fostering technological uptake in the current decade. Current developments in CCS have benefitted from supportive policies like the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act. If these ambitious frameworks are fully realized, CCS capacity could potentially increase eightfold by 2030. However, historical precedents raise red flags; previous waves of CCS interest saw project fail rates nearing 90%. If previous patterns continue, actual capacity increases could be halved, exposing a significant gap between plans and feasible progress.
The evolution of CCS mirrors the historical trajectories of other low-carbon technologies, exhibiting a non-linear growth pattern. Successful acceleration requires learning from the rapid expansion of wind power in the early 2000s and the monumental growth rates experienced by nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s. As Jewell articulates, while achieving the 2°C target remains a feasible ambition, securing the 1.5°C target may require extraordinary measures that, as of now, appear out of reach.
The Future: A Call for Comprehensive Strategies
The findings underline an urgent call for robust policy measures to support the growth of CCS and other decarbonization technologies. Aleh Cherp, a professor at Central European University, emphasizes that the success of CCS in capturing and storing carbon will only contribute a portion of what is necessary for global climate goals. As such, the acceleration of renewable energies—particularly wind and solar—is essential in parallel to CCS initiatives.
While CCS holds transformative potential for climate mitigation, a response that matches the enormity of the climate crisis is requisite. A synchronized approach combining CCS expansion with aggressive growth in renewable energy sources is the only pathway to achieving meaningful reductions in global carbon emissions. Conclusively, to turn the tide against climate change, we must act swiftly and decisively to harness the potential of CCS and ensure that viable solutions are implemented to safeguard the planet for future generations.